James McPherson's Media & Politics Blog

Observations of a patriotic progressive historian, media critic & former journalist

  • By the author of The Conservative Resurgence and the Press: The Media’s Role in the Rise of the Right and of Journalism at the End of the American Century, 1965-Present. A former journalist with a Ph.D. in journalism, history and political science, McPherson is a past president of the American Journalism Historians Association and a board member for the Northwest Alliance for Responsible Media.

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Romney mountain-high in Colorado

Posted by James McPherson on October 4, 2012

Colorado may be a swing state, but Barack Obama may have developed a new dislike for the Centennial State this week. First came his dismal debate performance, in which Obama demonstrated that he didn’t learn from Clint Eastwood not to walk onto a stage unless you know what you want to say. Now two Colorado professors–using a model they say has correctly predicted the winner of the past eight presidential elections–say that Mitt Romney will win the presidential election.

Actually they originally said so back in August for a peer-reviewed study, and conservative blogs have been touting the study ever since. But since the researchers noted that their data was from data gathered in June and would later be updated, I essentially ignored it–other than to send political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry an email requesting an update when they were ready to release it. Today, professor Berry kindly sent me a link to the press release announcing the new results.

As far as I know, only the Denver Post has beaten me to the announcement that, according to the new data, “President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.”

Perhaps Bickers and Berry are right. But the conservative professor that I had lunch with today and I think otherwise. Neither of us happens to be a political scientist, just political junkies, but a host of electoral maps from the likes of Real Clear Politics, CNN, polltrack.com, electoral-vote.com, Intrade, Nate Silver, the Washington Post, the Princeton Election Consortium, 270towin, and even the conservative Rasmussen Reports also show Romney to be in serious trouble.

One thing about it though: If Berry and Bickers are somehow proven right, they ought to auction off their services for 2016. And now conservatives will have one more reason to be enthused, while Romney has another reason to appreciate the Colorado state motto: Nil Sine Numine, or “Nothing without Providence” (sometimes translated as “Nothing without the Deity”).

P.S.: Reading the press release a bit more closely, we see, “The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.” But even Rasmussen is calling Pennsylvania “safe (for) Obama,” and most maps have him leading in almost all of the swing states. Romney could win. But most of us who follow politics closely don’t find it likely.

Post-election update: Of the eleven states mentioned above, Romney actually carried ONE–North Carolina–demonstrating the difference between political science modeling and actual polling.

24 Responses to “Romney mountain-high in Colorado”

  1. I believe it will be close, and I do believe it will boil down to a battle of ideologies. I hope you were able to see that, Sweet Baby, James, because it was blatant to me.

  2. James McPherson said

    Everyone else seems to think it will be close, though I think Obama will end up with 290 or more electoral votes. And of course our buddy Utah keeps predicting a landslide for Romney, but I think he’s spending too much time around oil fumes. 🙂

  3. If he keeps these kind of performances up at the debates, I feel his chances are questionable. That said, there are way too many people who do not pay attention to what the hello is going on. It is sad, but true. I should like to know how many people tuned in last night. For instance, my brother-in-law only caught bits and pieces as he had church last night.

  4. jm said

    Obviously, President Barack Obama was not on his ‘A’ Game.

    But, that may not necessarily have been the result of preparation or debating skill. Nor may it have been strategy.

    I am beginning to think that President Obama may have been tipped off that Governor Mitt Romney had been coached by disloyal Democrats who were quietly shifting support to Romney. That probably was not confirmed in his mind until Romney took the stage and spoke.

    Romney clearly walked back from some of the core planks of the conservative GOP agenda. That was totally unexpected.

    As noted by Philip Klein, senior editorial writer for the conservative Washington Examiner:

    Another reason for caution is that Romney, as part of his efforts to disarm Obama’s criticisms, made a number of policy concessions that could box him in and make it more difficult for him to govern as a limited government conservative if elected. At various times during the debate Romney said that he wasn’t interested in cutting taxes, particularly on the wealthy; that he would cover individuals with pre-existing conditions; that he wouldn’t touch Medicare and Social Security over the next decade and would be willing to give more money to seniors for prescription drugs; and that he’d be open to hiring more teachers.

    LINK: http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney-crushes-obama-but-concedes-policy-ground/article/2509820#.UG2WYbvVhyw

    Once Romney repositioned himself live, on stage and in real time before millions of TV viewers, Obama understandably became cautious because he did not know what else to expect, nor did he know who was really behind Romney making the shift.

  5. James McPherson said

    Maybe it was just inevitable. Rachel Maddow had an interesting segment tonight about debates between sitting presidents and their challengers. In “first debates” like this one, the presidents are 1-6, with only Bill Clinton coming out a winner. Even Ronald Reagan “won” as a challenger and “lost” as an incumbent.

  6. Strawman said

    Kell some sites say about 63 Million watched the debate. I am staying with my Romney gets 273 and wins after lawyers fight tooth and nail to change Federal election laws as Al Gore’s did in 2000. Poor Al, did you see his explanation on Current TV? Something about the altitude is the reason Obama tripped up. He also is looking a little puffy since Tipper left him. The win was short lived, and the regular groups that get tingles down their legs are already “Fact Checking” Romney only. Of course this going to get ugly as we can see President Obama came out the next day and called Romney “Untruthful”. You all are going to see real Chicago Politics is action, warning it isn’t pretty and usually crooked. Yes James we Political junky’s are having a field day this year. I can wait for the VP debate, I wonder which Joe is going to show up, He is pretty good in debates and if Paul gets to wonky on numbers he will lose the Jersey Shore fan club, Joe could win the debate but not the facts. No matter what I think Big Bird will be alright, with or without Federal funding.273 is the number and it is possible unless anymore old videos come out from either side in the next month.

    Respectfully submitted; Reuel

  7. I’m quite tickled by a lot of the left’s explanations for Obama’s performance in the debate. HELLO! When you suck, you suck. Simple as that.

    As far as the Ryan/ Biden debate, I do believe my little WI boy will crucify him. I just wish to hell I knew what a wonky was.

    Reuel, why do you also go by Strawman?

    Now you’ve got me thinking on the 63 million. Since the US has 314 million or so folks, that would mean that not too many folks tuned in…..

  8. James McPherson said

    Reuel, no need to add “respectfully submitted”–we know you well enough to understand that, even when things get heated. I never take any of it personally. You make a good point about Joe being good in debates. He usually manages to combine folksy with a good grasp of details–and the debate format keeps him from going off on weird tangents that he’s prone to when giving speeches. I think it will be the most interesting debate of the four, and unfortunately I probably won’t get to see it unless I find in online later.

    “You all are going to see real Chicago Politics”

    Agreed. As I’ve said, Obama is a better politician than people give him credit for. His ground game will help him overcome bad debate performances: https://jmcpherson.wordpress.com/2012/08/01/no-horsing-around-obama-kicking-romneys-rear-chicago-style/

    “No matter what I think Big Bird will be alright, with or without Federal funding.”

    Agreed. In fact, that Romney statement is looking like a gift to the Dems and to PBS.

    Kells: “I just wish to hell I knew what a wonky was.”

    In politics, wonky typically refers to someone who understands and even likes the details (including numbers and fine print) of policy-making.

    “Since the US has 314 million or so folks”

    Yeah, but that includes kids, prisoners, non-citizens, and everyone who can’t or won’t vote. I’ve seen one estimate of about 210 million eligible voters, of whom some 150 million actually vote. If those numbers are anywhere close to accurate, the 63 million looks better–especially considering that there are people who just couldn’t watch because of other commitments and folks who chose not to watch because nothing either candidate could do would change their minds about who they’d vote for.

  9. jm said

    The NYT reported that the Debate reached 67.2M on the four US networks, and over 3M on the Latino networks.

    The WP reported that on social media, there were over 11M tweets and posts.

    The Census Bureau reported that 131M people voted in 2008.

    So the reach of the Debate On Wednesday was quite significant.

    It will generate a great deal of media buzz throughout the remainder of the news cycle.

  10. James McPherson said

    Cool–thanks for the numbers, JM. It seems that Big Bird and the news jobs report are already taking some of the buzz, though I agree that the debate discussion will hang around just because of the number of folks who saw it. Have a great weekend.

  11. I always preferred Oscar. I’m glad to know that I’m not a wonky as B. claimed me to be….. at least not 100%, anyways.

  12. Strawman said

    James the Chicago machine is in full “Calling Romney a Liar”. Ask Hillary about the way they treated her, Oh yeah we can’t she got paid off with the State Department gig. This week shall be reported correctly about the Libya mistake and the cover up that followed, oh course by some. The lesson learned about Libya military action that President Obama did without any consulting of the congress and only with UN/NATO coordination, is this: President Reagan shut the leader up with about 2 hours of bombing, President Bush had this chicken turn over most of the WMD and Nuclear program equipment with a threat and President Obama poked a stick into a hornets nest and is getting stung regularly from this miss step. Any respectable foreign policies expert would of not recommended removal of the head of the snake in Libya, but a verbal warning and maybe a couple of cruise missiles in very discreet locations to put him back into his usual party mode. Let just say the man could party and was usually distracted from killing people. I do think President Obama’s speech in Egypt (2009) is what the Muslim Brother Hood took to heart and with some extreme sections of this religion took control of the whole Northern Coast of Africa. Now it may not seem major, but history will see this as a major turn of events that has been plotted since the 1920’s when the Brother Hood was first identified. I see nothing good in this for a peaceful world due to the Brother Hood has only one resolution for all that do not follow their beliefs. Then the Obama administration blaming it on a video instead a message sent by the Brother Hood on 911. The video was their rallying call but it was pretty much like a political talking point used by a political party that knows most of the voters really don’t pay attention to the “Wonky” parts of real plan and they repeat these clever little phrases to stir the uninformed voters. The Brother Hood took a page from our own politics to stir a bunch of uneducated masses that have really nothing better to do but burn flags and effigies of our leader.

    Kells; William, I think started the Straw-man thing when commenting about one of my rants. Yes I rant sometimes, oh well it could be worse, I could run around calling my opponent a liar and the lemmings that follow just jump on board without any research, vote for the most deceptive President in my life time. History will only be kind to President Obama in the books that are written by his faithful followers whom call themselves “journalist”. Disclosure statement: No James you are not one of them I write of. 🙂


    Please excuse all clerical eras, Engineer, not a English Major.

  13. James McPherson said

    “the Chicago machine is in full ‘Calling Romney a Liar’”

    True, but then I’ve been doing the same thing (and of course I agree that Obama is a liar, too). If Mitt isn’t lying, he’s certainly changing his mind a lot. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/rulings/pants-fire/

    “Obama poked a stick into a hornets nest and is getting stung regularly from this miss step”

    Maybe, but that’s been a tradition for American presidents since at least Jimmy Carter–esp. in Iran, of course. As for Bush, remember how he kept talking about the need for democracy in the Middle East? Of course he probably didn’t mean it, but we should be careful about what we say we want.

  14. Strawman said

    Well we did get a form of democracy, not quite like ours. Problem is all that Democracy proved to be bad medicine for some countries recognized or not., IE Hamas, Muslim Brother Hood and others that really don’t have us or our allies best interests in mind. I am always fascinated by the lack of reporting on the Obama Administration by the old school media on his missteps. Libya is a fine example of this and my guess is they will be playing ketch up real soon. It seems they wanted the narrative to be that we won the war on terror by taking out one person. These extremest are a very patient lot and in their view it isn’t over until they say it is. Yes I saw that on politifacts. com but I still like his answer to how he will cut taxes, get rid of deductions at the higher end and wait until he can negotiate with congress on what deductions to cut. He will at least hold out a olive branch unlike what we saw in the last three years. The President sets the mood for bipartisanship and all have tried except the current one. I saw very little reaching out by Obama, Nancy and Harry so if I were a Republican I would respond in like fashion. The lie they accuse him of is is based on what they say is the results of a study they cherry picked to use. Both side do it, but they want to go to the mud because they can not run on their record. Lies on the trail are nothing compared to lies on the job and Libya was a lie from the beginning and the truth is already in the media, just not the Obama friendly media. Yet. When I say 273, Hint it includes Michigan. Big shocker in the so called auto state he bailed out. Michigan has a Republican Governor and he made some “Change” that was not popular, but it worked.

  15. William Gates said

    “I saw very little reaching out by Obama, Nancy and Harry so if I were a Republican I would respond in like fashion.”

    Oh, like Mitch McConnell saying, “the single most important thing we (Republican Senators and State Representatives) want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president!” That really sounds like someone willing to “reach across the aisle”. Republicans were just doing what democrats did to them. If Romney gets elected, it’ll switch again.You basically said it was ok to be partisan because they’re doing it. James can tell you what type of fallacy you’ve just committed.

    Also, Obama knew the only chance that he had was when he had the majority. So he took his plan and ran it through Congress with the quickness. Does Romney like it? Who knows? Sometimes he’ll keep parts in place. Sometimes, he’ll repeal it. That’s the problem most have with him. He moved back to the middle during the debate like he was when he was in office. Campaigning though, he pretends to be far-right. With Obama, you know what you get. Tax and spend and big government. You get different things from Romney depending on who he’s talking to.

    “Yes I saw that on politifacts. com but I still like his answer to how he will cut taxes”

    Wow. You just said the you like a lie. Amazing. He said all those things but we know he doesn’t mean it. He picked Paul Ryan for a reason. He agrees with his budget plans. I assume you, too. But his plans are full of old tried failed methods. Medicare vouchers will go about as far as privatizing SS went along with his consumption taxes and eliminating capital gains taxes. That doesn’t close loopholes. That opens the door wider. Ryan has introduced many bills but only a few have ever went anywhere with a significant number of republicans voting against his proposed legislation. Ryan was also on the bi-partisan committee to come up with a debt reduction plan. Did he extend out an olive branch then? Nope. He voted against the final report.

    I guess you also like people to use the emergency rooms for primary care like Mitt does, since it’s basically an unfunded mandate. We know republicans like those.

    “Lies on the trail are nothing compared to lies on the job”

    So it’s ok to lie to get there, as long as you don’t lie once you’re there? Interesting logic there. I remember you saying that he was honest. Now you’re saying it’s ok for him to lie.

    “Michigan has a Republican Governor and he made some “Change” that was not popular, but it worked.”

    Sounds Like Romney and the SLC Olympics. After lobbying for government money, it worked out well too.

  16. Strawman said

    William; You are repeating the Democrats talking points about Romney’s lies. I disagree that what he said was a lie. For several reasons, first he wants to simplify the tax code, which is way past due. He wants to reduce deductions to upper income people and large corporations. He even agreed to remove the 2.8 Billion a year that goes to small companies that get this deduction as oil drillers. It is the money Obama calls the 4 billion to Big oil he uses on his stump speech. Which is a misrepresentation of the facts by Obama, the deductions is for exploring oil and that is done mostly by contractors of Big oil. But saying that Romney has lied in my view a lie. Now take the whole Libya lie Obama and his administrations is pedaling and comparing it to what the Obama campaign is calling a lie being equal lies is in my view on different plains totally. 4 people got killed and this administration has covered up what was really going on there to stand on their stump and declare victory against Terrorists because they got Bin laden and GM is alive. As for GM that is a lie also, they are on life support supplemented by the government. Do I fully support Romney? Yes and it isn’t because he would be my first choice, but he is far more honest than the current Occupier of the White House. Then the statement made by a Republican about his most important thing was to make Obama a one termer, check the date he said that, it was after 18 months of Democrats not compromising any and only staging big meeting at the White house for the TV camera. Then when the doors shut and the cameras went away Barry, Nancy and Harry ran the most left leaning legislation in many decades. 2010 the voters spoke and unlike President Clinton they didn’t listen, so 2012 is going to be another lesson learned for them if they choose to except it. One comment out of one Republican is a needle in a hay stack compared to Trillions racked up in the last 4 years. Instead of focusing on Jobs Jobs Jobs they promise in 2008 they spent two years putting a 2700 page disaster for the future of health care. I don’t get the comparison between Michigan Governor and the Olympic reference. Michigan Governor took a deficit left to him by a Democratic Governor and made it a surplus. Your whole theory of vouchers for Medicarein turn privatizing Social Security was addressed at the debate last week, he said first of all you can keep regular Medicare and he will not change Social Security, I know he said that and if he does differently after elected, then yes you can call it a lie. I still say Romney is more honest than the current administration, without any hesitation. When He is President Romney and if he lies I will be out saying the same thing in 2016 for whomever I believe is being the most honest. Sorry not buying the Democratic talking points when they use of a study by a partisan think tanks to justify calling Romney a liar. Obama has noting to run on but Bin Laden is dead and the war on Terrorist isn’t over until the extremest terrorist say so, not Obama.

  17. William Gates said

    If you campaign one thing and then debate another is it a lie? Or maybe just changed his mind? So is cutting $716 Billion for Medicare a lie or the truth?

    “But saying that Romney has lied in my view a lie.”

    He’s never lied? Let’s see…

    “Under Obama’s plan (for welfare), you wouldn’t have to work and wouldn’t have to train for a job. They just send you your welfare check.” Lie
    “President Barack Obama is “ending Medicare as we know it.”–Lie
    “The U.S. military is at risk of losing its “military superiority” because “our Navy is smaller than it’s been since 1917″

    Shall I continue?

    ” I don’t get the comparison between Michigan Governor and the Olympic reference”

    They both took federal funds in order to make something happen.

    “I still say Romney is more honest than the current administration”

    More honest? So are you saying that at times he’s not?

    “Your whole theory of vouchers for Medicarein turn privatizing”

    Not my theory. That’s Romney/Ryan theory.

    “Sorry not buying the Democratic talking points when they use of a study by a partisan think tanks to justify calling Romney a liar”

    How about some nonpartisan ones then”

    “Mitt Romney falsely claims in a series of TV ads that President Obama “will raise taxes on the middle class by $4,000.” That’s nonsense.”

    “Romney: But don’t forget, you put $90 billion, like 50 years’ worth of breaks, into — into solar and wind, to Solyndra and Fisker and Tesla and Ener1. I mean, I had a friend who said you don’t just pick the winners and losers, you pick the losers, all right?”

    We asked the Romney campaign about the $90 billion, and it referred us to a July 14, 2010, administration report on the economic impact of the stimulus. But that report said only about $21 billion went “for Renewable Generation, such as the installation of wind turbines and solar panels.”

    The seven other sub-categories of “clean-energy” projects identified in the report were:

    $29 billion for energy efficiency, including $5 billion for the weatherization of low-income homes;
    $10 billion to modernize the nation’s electric grid;
    $6 billion for domestic manufacturing of advanced batteries and other components of alternative vehicles and fuel technology;
    $18 billion for transit projects, including high-speed rail;
    $3 billion for researching and developing clean-coal technology;
    $3 billion for job training;
    $2 billion in manufacturing tax credits.
    So, clearly, the $90 billion wasn’t just for wind and solar projects.


    But he doesn’t lie like the rest of them, right?

  18. Strawman said

    William; One thing is for sure, we both have views from different perspective. One question. Where is the money coming from to support Factcheck dot org? Obama is raising taxes on the the middle class and it is documented on the supreme court ruling about Obama Scare. I think I will choose the words in a supreme court ruling over a factcheck dot org dot Where do they get their funding?But don’t forget 21 billion even if is only that amount was given to Big Green friends of Obama and that would be equal to 5 years of 4 billion going to Big oil which is a fine example of the government investing in winners and loser. The losers were the friends that were big money blunders for his 2008 and some are still bundling for him in 2012. Glass house theory in full effect, Didn’t Obama promise to not practice the same cronyism in 2008 as the Republicans. I do remember a stump speech about that. So let look at all the investment Obama made with the stimulus, not just green energy. The list is long and full of cronyism. So we are at a point that the most important thing that will effect the future of this nation, The debt and during the debate last night or last week did the Obama camp explain how the heck they were going to stop the trillion dollar a year deficits projected over the next 4 years. I know they said they were going to raise taxes on the top 125,000 people and business, that is total 125,000 for both, some small business file as individuals. SO if they raise it back to the Clinton rate that is 39 percent with a total yearly gross of approximately some where between 78 and 87 billion a year new revenue. They are also on the stump touting they they cut the deficit by 1 trillion and 4 trillion which would be true if they were just not projected reduction to the increase in spending, which is what they are. So then the whole 716 Billion “Savings” they said they found in Medicare/Medicaid from reducing payouts to middle company “Insurance company” and that savings is spent on Obama Scare. Now even if that is true and it fully cuts that much from spending on Medicare it is still being used to support Obama care which is about 2.7 trillion dollars projected instead of the 1 trillion projected before the bill was a law. So at what point does someone say enough is enough. Government has never projected anything right when it comes to real cost.
    So what is the Democrats plan to reduce the debt/deficits? That is simple I think they plan to default on it. They sure don’t seem to really care about it and their plan to raise taxes on the “Rich” is about 8 percent of the one trillion a year. They counted a savings from ends of the wars? Do you know how much that is every year? 10 percent of money they are borrowing anyway. So that gets us to 18 percent of deficit per year. So if you use the same logic they are for what they say the Romney plan is they to will have to either cut benefits or raise taxes on the middle class to balance the budget. You ever wonder why the Democrats never calculate the revenue for created private sector jobs in as a increase in revenue? They never seem to mention that, I worked for Presidents Kennedy, Reagan, Clinton and yes Bush, they all lowered taxes and increased revenue and decreased unemployment, then some went back and raised taxes during a health economy. President Clinton did that and he never touts that it was done with a Republican Congress, but they did adjust the taxes up in some areas but only after the economy recovered. SO bottom line is even with the projected cuts (in increased spending) the Obama administration say they have we still got a trillion dollar a year deficit. simple math is far more reliable that a website on the internet or person running for another term with about a 1000 thing pending (Kick down the road) until November 2012. Besides he has never signed a full budget passed by congress the whole time he has been in office. That is a first in history I do declare. So stay on the Romney bashing tour, I am voting for change and will again in 2016 if Romney does not show signs of improvement.

    Have a nice day. Reuel

  19. William Gates said

    Where we mainly differ is that you look to a person to “fix” the economy where as NO president ever has. They can’t. They can only hurt it. They can only make the environment conducive for job growth. You look to Romney as a savior and job creator when I see different. I don’t see Obama as that either. I see Romney as a flip-flopper on just about every major issue according to the crowd that he’s speaking to. Hell, he couldn’t even beat John McCain. But now, he’s golden to you. good luck with that.

    Only people that create jobs are consumers that demand goods and services. Romney could open an Penguin feed store in the North Pole and hire 2 people. You’ll say he created those jobs. But since there are few, if any at all, penguins in the North Pole, his business will ultimately fail. You’ll blame that on th economy. You won’t say he killed 2 jobs. Because these guys got you believing they create jobs. Consumer demand creates jobs. People buying goods and services create jobs. Not Romney. That 12 million job creation in 4 years statement he and Ryan keep throwing around is predicted by many American economist regardless of who’s in office, but they want credit for it.

    “The figure below, for example, is the Moody’s.com forecast, 2012-2016, which in fact predicts the growth of 12 million jobs over these years. That’s about a 9% increase, about the same percentage gains as in each of the Clinton terms and over the second Reagan term.”

    Unemployment under Reagan?

    High of 10.8% and low of 5.4 averaging 7.5%. Not that much better than it is today. Reagan raised taxes more than he cut them. More than doubled the national debt and his policies contributed to the S&L crisis of the 80’s.

    ” Government has never projected anything right when it comes to real cost.”

    But you trust Romney/Ryan’s figures? Amazingly contradictory.

    ” So stay on the Romney bashing tour”

    I’m on a bashing them all tour with Congress being the worst. You can keep on singing the praises and disregarding these guy’s pasts if you like.

  20. Strawman said

    I remember 1979, I was in my twenties and could not find a job. Yes Reagan raised taxes more that he lowered them, but if you read what I said above. The way that Washington can help produce jobs in the private sector is to first lower taxes, lower regulations to a safe level, then after it starts coming back a modest raise in revenue (taxes) to pay back our debt.

    Simple I see only two choices this election Obama or Romney. That is a simple choice for me. In no way am I singing any praises of anyone. I am choosing the people that have not been in charge for the last 4 years all the way down the ballet, some are Democrats some are Republicans. If Romney does a bad job I will vote against him in 2016.

    Obama has run out of Republicans to throw under the bus and has just turned on his State Department and Intel community on this whole Libya mess we are in by his own doing. Obama assumes zero responsibility of anything but the very few good things that have happened in the last 4 years. Obama is the most narcissistic, blaming everyone but himself, self centered and has only one persons interests on his mind. Him. I do like what Johnson has had to say, but it would be a vote taken from Romney whom at least deserves a chance. We know what we will get the next four years of Obama and it will be worse on steroids because he does not have to run again. Unless he writes another Executive order declaring himself the only one qualified to be Leader of this country.

    William it is the only logical way to go in my view. Don’t under estimate them until they have had their chance, Obama had a extra ordinary chance to bring this country together. He failed and spent 6 trillion dollars in 3.5 years more than we had. We know his plan, Spend and Tax. Been tried and is a failure.

  21. William Gates said

    “William it is the only logical way to go in my view.”

    I understand your point. I just don’t see Romney the answer. He will meet the same resistance that Obama has met. That’s the way it goes in politics these days. And instead of getting it under control, demanding honesty and the truth from these guys, we the people have just chosen a side and believes that lying is acceptable as long as it’s by the candidate we like. That’s the moral erosion of America. Sad.

    “The way that Washington can help produce jobs in the private sector is to first lower taxes,”

    Now I can’t agree with that. You can’t lower taxes first unless you see a direct immediate relationship between lowering taxes and raising revenue. That’s not immediate. First, stop the wars. That’s immediate. Then lower restrictive regulations. Pass a balanced budget. Make it a constitutional amendment. Pay off bills then lower certain taxes. That’s my problem with Romney/Ryan. They say reduce taxes by 20% but no way of how and what taxes. Remember Congress writes the tax code not the executive branch.

    “Obama had a extra ordinary chance to bring this country together”

    No sure what that means but I’ll respond to what I think it means. He had no chance. It was going to be strictly partisan regardless. Looks at all the “worst Congress” “Do nothing Congress'” votes and you’ll see mostly straight down party lines. This congress has the worst rating in US history.

    “I do like what Johnson has had to say”

    Me too. That’s why I’ll vote for him. I didn’t like what Obama did with GM (not necessarily the bailout but the removal of the CEO) so that turned me against him.

    “If Romney does a bad job I will vote against him in 2016”

    He’ll have the same task as Obama had. He’ll blame Obama, like Obama blames Bush, like Bush blame Clinton. It’s already started. I hope you see that then instead of just saying, “well it’s true” like many will say. He did inherit a mess. But if the government just leave well enough alone, and stay out of it, the market correct itself. The rate of recovery now is slow. But it’s steady. I have a friend in the biggest real estate company in this area this is saying this is their best year ever. Whomever is President in 2013 will have a recovering economy. They will take credit for it. People will believe them ignoring the past history of the economy being cyclical.

  22. Strawman said

    Remember Congress writes the tax code not the executive branch.

    Exactly, that is why Romney’s plan calls for 20 percent reduction, then go to congress and get rid a deductions as he and Ryan stated in the debates. The loopholes in the tax code are what makes it some 16,000 pages. Simplify, reduces over-site cost and remove the paybacks that are in the code to benefit (paybacks) added by both political parties.

    He’ll have the same task as Obama had. He’ll blame Obama,

    The only thing I remember President Bush blaming President Clinton for was shooting off all the cruise missiles in Africa and Iraq in his wag the dog days and not replacing them.

    In the last two debates he and Ryan said they will not do this and except responsibility. If they blame Obama once, I will remember and then call them on the lie. It is only a political lie if it is stated then not followed. We do need to hold both parties to the same standards and calling them on their statements verses actions.

    The crash in 2008 was not all the fualt of President Bush, it was both parties and also many of the public that extended their personal credit beyond their means. When a persons Mortgages IE 2nd and 3rd Mortgages included exceeded the percentage acceptable to the income they have, many were in this category and the ones that failed were destine to fail . That is nice your friend is doing good in real estate, but they are getting their percentages on the sale of property that is at a lower value. I am half tempted to scoop up a couple of houses in my area just to sale them for a profit, lots of good deals and it is a buyers market. That being said the only real recovery will be when the income base starts going back up and the real unemployment numbers go up. Actual percentage of employment verses not in the work force.

    It was going to be strictly partisan regardless. Looks at all the “worst Congress” “Do nothing Congress’” .

    Yes this is a problem, What exactly did they get done from 2007 to 2009 and 2011 to present? Nothing but investigation from 2007 to 2009 with no findings. 2011 to present house passed a massive amount of bills (Mostly Republican supported) sent them the the Senate and Harry tabled them. It funny to hear the Democrat rave about the 7 percent approval rating of Congress when they own one side of it. Honestly, I think we could cut the number of members in the House of Representative in half and not even miss them.

    We are both in agreement of ending our military actions ASAP. But I would add one even more extreme move. close all military bases overseas, bring all our military personnel back to our own soil and tell anyone from this day forward “If you mess with us we will not return troops only a response you will never forget.” Iraq and Afghanistan should of been to take out the armies, remove their leaders and exit stage left/right or what ever direction available. Then warn the neighbors of that country if they take advantage of this weaken country they will be next. Nation building has cost us the most life’s on both sides. I told you it would be extreme, but in my view this is all some in this world understand, resounding force. Sad but true.

  23. William Gates said

    “Exactly, that is why Romney’s plan calls for 20 percent reduction”

    That’s the problem. The 20% has never been explained.

    “The only thing I remember President Bush blaming President Clinton for was….”

    One of the first things he said when he entered office was that the country was entering a recession because of previous administrations policies.

    “The crash in 2008 was not all the fualt of President Bush”

    Never said it was. Therefore all the blame should never be at the foot of the president regardless if who he is.

    “Yes this is a problem, What exactly did they get done from 2007 to 2009 and 2011 to present? Nothing ”

    I agree but again we’ll play partisan politics and elect them all again just to say “our side won” instead of looking at their job performance.

    “That is nice your friend is doing good in real estate, but they are getting their percentages on the sale of property that is at a lower value.”

    Not true. Best year ever indicates net profits. They’ve had many years during the housing boom that they made a lot of money. Housing prices are on the rise here. They’re making more actual money now not just moving property taking lessor profit.

    “We are both in agreement of ending our military actions ASAP. But I would add one even more extreme move. close all military bases overseas”

    I wouldn’t close them all but I would do a heavy reduction. Those in strategic locations, like Guam and Azores for instance, I’d leave open.

    “Sad but true”

    Absolutely and it’s nothing Obama or Romney can do about it. They are no more saviours than Obama/Biden.

    We’ve lost a lot of morality as a nation. Instead of being saddened by the loss of an ambassador, we’ve chosen to just jump right on the administration. In the past, yes we’d scream for accountability, but not be so quick to condemn the other side. The guy’s body wasn’t even cold before the first political statement was launched. Shameful. We are the ones, yes us, that continue to divide. We are the one’s wanting to separate. It’s us. Not Obama. Not Romney. They are involved by asking us to choose a side but ultimately we are to blame by not demanding more. We’ve settled for liars, and I don’t mean broken campaign promises, I mean literal lies. We’ve settled for whomever the (choose your party) is. The parties are too powerful now. We the people have to demand better.

  24. […] Politics by the Numbers, Scott Elliott’s ElectionProjection.com, (Several of those I’ve mentioned previously, but some I learned about just today from Asawin Suebsaeng of Mother […]

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